featured image for podcast episodeThe Stock Series Part 2 | JL Collins

The Stock Series Part 2 | JL Collins
Episode 034

Episode Guide

A detailed exploration of stock investment principles, emphasizing the importance of staying the course during market volatility. The discussion revolves around the historical context of investing, referencing significant market downturns like the Great Depression and the 2008 financial crisis. Key lessons include the dangers of margin trading, the psychology of risk, and the necessity for a long-term perspective in investing. Insights are shared on the ideal asset allocation strategies for different life stages, particularly focusing on the wealth building and wealth preservation phases. The speakers advocate for a 100% stock investment strategy during the wealth building stage, using total stock market index funds like VTSAX, and a balanced approach incorporating bonds during the wealth preservation stage. The overarching theme is to embrace market fluctuations as opportunities rather than threats, reinforcing the idea that a disciplined investment approach leads to financial independence.

Episode Timestamps

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FI blogger most noted for The Stock Series. Author of The Simple Path to Wealth

In "The Simple Path to Wealth," JL Collins presents a clear, accessible guide to achieving financial independence and creating a life of freedom

Where to Find Me

The Simple Path to Wealth

JL Collins’ The Simple Path to Wealth is an invaluable guide for anyone looking to take control of their finances, build long-term wealth, and ultimately achieve financial independence. Written in a refreshingly straightforward and no-nonsense style, Collins distills complex financial concepts into practical, actionable advice that readers can easily grasp, regardless of their experience with investing or personal finance.

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Mastering Stock Market Strategies During Fluctuations

Understanding stock market strategies during periods of market volatility is vital for any investor aiming for financial independence. The concepts discussed by JL Collins in the Stock Series offer timeless wisdom that can serve as guiding principles to navigate uncertain investment landscapes.

Avoid Margin Trading

One of the fundamental tenets of wise investing is to avoid buying stocks on margin. Margin trading involves borrowing money from a brokerage to purchase more stocks than you can afford. While this strategy can multiply gains in a booming market, it also amplifies losses. When the market declines, margin calls can force you to sell your stocks at a loss, exacerbating your financial fallout. Therefore, commit to investing only the capital you possess and can afford to lose to mitigate risks associated with margin trading.

Understand Market Psychology

Investment psychology plays a significant role in shaping market movements. Fear and greed are the twin emotions that often dictate investor behavior. During bull markets, greed can lead to irrational exuberance, causing investors to ignore sound judgment and increase their exposure to risk. Conversely, in bearish conditions, fear can trigger panic selling, often leading to substantial losses. Recognizing these psychological factors can help you maintain a level-headed approach and make informed decisions, irrespective of market conditions.

Learn from Economic History

Historical market events, such as the 1929 crash, offer numerous lessons for modern-day investors. The Roaring Twenties, characterized by rapid economic growth and speculative investment practices, eventually culminated in a catastrophic market collapse. Understanding the causes of such historical downturns enables you to identify red flags and avoid similar pitfalls. For instance, if you notice rampant speculation or hear investment tips from uninformed sources, consider reassessing your strategies. The adage that "it's time to exit the market when you start hearing stock tips from shoeshine boys" rings true today as it did in the past.

Embrace Dollar-Cost Averaging

Dollar-cost averaging is a strategic investment approach where you invest a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of market conditions. This technique helps to reduce the average cost per share over time and mitigate the risks associated with market timing. Consistent investments, especially during market corrections, can lead to significant gains in the long run. When stock prices drop, buy more shares; your future self will thank you when the market inevitably rebounds.

Maintain a Strong Savings Rate

A solid savings rate is essential for successful investing. Whether your goal is early retirement or simply financial stability, prioritize saving a portion of your income—ideally, aim for 30%, 50%, or even 70%. The more you save, the more you can invest, effectively leveraging downturns to purchase stocks at discounted prices. This disciplined approach not only builds your portfolio but also fortifies your financial independence journey.

Invest Consistently

Never let market fluctuations deter you from investing. Consistent contributions to your investment accounts, particularly during downturns, can lead to long-term growth. Market drops should be perceived as opportunities—strategic moments to buy stocks at lower valuations. For both active investors and those relying on index funds, this approach capitalizes on the compound effects of regular investing.

Adjust Your Portfolio Allocation

Being mindful of your asset allocation strategy is crucial when navigating the stock market's ups and downs. Periodically reassess your investment mix to maintain an appropriate balance between stocks and bonds. During market downturns, selling portions of your bond holdings can provide the liquidity needed to purchase undervalued stocks. Adapting your allocations not only safeguards your investments but also prepares you for eventual market rebounds.

Build Resilience Against Market Volatility

It's important to develop a mindset that embraces the inherent volatility of the investment world. Understand that fluctuations are normal and often unavoidable. As an investor, you should learn to be comfortable with this rollercoaster of emotions. If you're armed with comprehensive knowledge about market conditions and historical context, you’ll be better equipped to make rational decisions in times of uncertainty.

Your Action Steps

  1. Commit to No Margin Trading: Review your current investment strategies; ensure that you are not utilizing margin trading. Shift to a cash-only approach to reduce risks.

  2. Implement Dollar-Cost Averaging: Establish a regular investment schedule. Decide on an amount to invest monthly, irrespective of market performance.

  3. Monitor Market Sentiment: Stay alert to market signals. If financial commentary feels overwhelmingly optimistic—a sign to reevaluate your positions may be in order.

  4. Enhance Your Savings Rate: If possible, increase your savings rate. More savings mean more investment opportunities. Set financial goals and track your progress.

  5. Review Your Portfolio: Regularly check your asset allocation strategy. Make sure you are comfortable with your risk exposure and that your portfolio aligns with your financial goals.

Conclusion

Adopting effective stock market strategies during fluctuating conditions can pave the way for sustained financial independence. Avoid margin trading, understand the psychological influences of investing, and learn from historical market events to enhance your approach. By embracing consistent investing, maintaining a robust savings rate, and adapting your portfolio as needed, you’ll be well-prepared to navigate market volatility and achieve your financial goals. Stay the course, invest wisely, and trust in your strategy for a prosperous financial future.

This podcast is Part 2 of the Stock Series discussion with JL Collins, author of The Simple Path to Wealth and the website JLCollinsNH; we discuss the Great Depression and the mindset you need to be a successful long-term investor, plus how to allocate between equities and bonds.

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Podcast Episode Summary

  • Part 2 of the Stock Series conversation with Jim Collins
    • If you have not yet listened to Part 1 you can listen to it here
    • Be sure to check out the associated Friday Roundup here for Brad and Jonathan's takeaways
  • A discussion of what happened during the Great Depression and the Crash of 1929
  • A large portion of the crash was due to many people buying stock on margin
  • Jim’s explanation of leverage and buying stocks on margin
  • Jim’s Four Lessons to watch out for
  • Making peace in your mind when a crash/correction happens. What caused it?  Psychology or something legitimate?
  • Unless you believe the US economy has permanently collapsed, then “the market always goes up” over time according to Jim
  • Jim says the best thing that can happen to a young investor is a market crash as you get to purchase stocks “on sale” for potentially years
  • Savings rate is the most crucial aspect for the FI community since it allows you to continually invest in good markets and bad
  • Bull markets and bear markets are a part of life. We need to toughen up mentally to prepare for both
  • Jim’s explanation of the 40 year period starting in 1975 showing the calamities that happened and yet how far the market increased
  • Nobody knows what the next 40 years will hold, but we have a dynamic economy
  • What stage of investment life are you in? It varies depending on your age
  • Wealth building and wealth preservation stages and the discussion surrounding both
  • When you’re in the wealth building stage you need to have your psychology correct: Keep pumping money into the market and take advantage of sales when the market goes down
  • 100% equities in the wealth building stage per Jim
  • When you stop working for money you are in the wealth preservation stage
  • What percentage should you have in stocks and bonds in the wealth preservation stage
  • The more you have in bonds the smoother your ride will be, but the lower your return will be
  • Your tolerance for volatility will determine your percentage in equities and bonds
  • Would Jim ever consider going back to 100% equities?
  • Mathematically you are always better off in stocks than bonds over the long-term
  • Even Jim contemplated selling during recent market plunges, so everyone is susceptible to this

Listen to Brad and Jonathan's thoughts about this episode here.

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